Betting on sports, in general, is difficult to do successfully. For most people, you probably will have as much luck flipping a coin to determine the winner as you will if you go over the matchups. Things become particularly difficult when it comes to betting on basketball games, be they NBA games or NCAA basketball.
Unlike sports like football, baseball, and hockey, where the sports are more team-oriented, basketball tends to involve a lot more individual efforts, at least on offense. Basketball games are often determined by players that are streaking. Hot-shooting, cold shooting, good passing, poor passing … these are the things that determine how a basketball game will progress.
In at least 70% of the NBA games, things won’t be determined until the final 5 minutes of the game. That’s when the good teams will make a run and the bad teams will flounder. This does little to help gamblers pick the correct winners on the spreads, however. In order to have better than a 50/50 chance of winning your bet, you have to do the following:
1) Research –
You may only get a slight advantage from reviewing each team and their current trends, but even a 5% advantage over the coin flip pick’em will help you out in the long run. You can never be more confident than 75% on any spread pick in any league. There are just too many variables when it comes to betting against the spread.
2) Watch the Games –
If you are going to bet on these games, you really need to watch the teams that you are going to be betting on. The best way to do this is to get the NBA league pass. That way, you can follow the games to see which teams are streaking and not just rely on stats that may fool you based on garbage time performances.
3) Be Selective when Betting –
If you are going to bet on basketball games, you need to realize that you should only bet on one out of every 5 to 10 games that you have researched. Many times, there simply is no advantage to betting on one side or another. If you have a favorite team you like to bet on, that’s fine. Go ahead and bet on them to win. But still, you should be selective when betting on your team. Wait until they have a good match-up or until they are on a 3 to 5 game streak of better-than-average play.
Researching the Basketball Games
There are a few key statistical categories that you need to research when determining who you are going to take on the spread. You should be comparing the past 5 games to the season average to determine team trends in these statistical areas. You will ideally want to bet on a team that is playing better than normal against a team playing below their statistical averages.
These statistical categories include shooting percentage, turnovers to assist ratio, free throws attempted, free throw percentage, and defensive field goal percentage. Find the teams that are streaking in those areas and place bets against the spread on these teams. This is the best chance that you have to gain a little bit of an advantage while betting on basketball games.
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